Interesting comments Brasstacks. I know the person who produced the spreadsheet and certainly wouldn't call him inexperienced. Believe he is well experienced, well educated, has an MBA and has been investing in stocks for over 40 years.
I therefore listen to what he has to say.
These are my comments on this thread.
1. It does seem logical to me he ignored holes that fall outside the JORC area. Why would you include them?
2. The assumption made to use an average of the holes we have data for to estimate the contained copper in those we don't, seems a reasonable way forward. Can't think of any other way of estimating the resource that would provide more confidence.
3. The author makes it plain that the figures are and I use his words "very, very conservative". His intention was to establish the absolute minimum share price value of the JORC information expected this month.
This again makes perfect sense to me as without this information investors can't make an investment decision. Larger gains will be made by those investors who act now rather than when the JORC information is issued. Informed investors need to make assumptions if they want to act before the general market.
4. Brasstacks - figures have been estimated by others, with much lower and I would say much larger valuations. It is interesting the investing community are happier to accept larger estimates without the assumptions and calculations being published for public scrutiny.
5. Using the figures and applying to the MOD share price for option 1 would indicate that whilst MOD have 70% of the JV with significantly more shares in circulation the share price value equates to roughly the same.
6. The estimate covers an area that is less than 1% of the total area of T3. It is scratching the surface.
7. In fairness to the author he makes it very clear, many variables and estimate could be significantly out.
We will soon have the JORC information and know how accurate the estimate is. The more information I have the better. I read everything and filter what I deem worthless.
Many do nothing and criticise, fewer do something and are criticised.
MOD Price at posting:
5.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held