SYR 2.22% 22.0¢ syrah resources limited

SYR and its Vanadium resource, page-9

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    At the time, the project’s resource was 1.15 billion tonnes grading 10.2% total graphitic carbon and 0.23% vanadium.​


    I don't know if this is any help, but here's another way of looking at it:

    1.15B tons x 0.23% = 2,645,000 tons Vanadium (V) in the deposit.
    If all that is recovered 20 years, that's 132,250 tpa V.
    Converting V to V2O5 = 132,250 tpa V x 182/102 = 236,000 tpa V2O5

    Compared to 255,000tpa V2O5 claimed by Syrah, that is not far off, but certainly more than is supported by the project resource claimed, more than a rounding error and a LOT more than is likely recoverable.

    The grade is not ridiculous. What's ridiculous is the fact that they aren't making the investment to make this money. I take it that's your point.

    Let's try this instead:
    Use tpa graphite production to re-estimate tpa V production by multiplying by the relative grade factor 0.23/10.2 = 0.02255. Then multiply that by the V2O5/V conversion = 1.78
    to get to tpa V2O5 (overall multiplier = 0.040).

    That will yield a MUCH lower number for sure.

    For example, for 2018: "With resolution of the level sensor issue, production of 160,000 tonnes [graphite] for 2018 remains achievable."

    160,000 tpa graphite x 0.04 = 6400 tpa V2O5
    6,400,000 kg V2O5 x 2.2 lb/kg x $17/lb V2O5 = $239,000,000

    OK, so that's a lot better than missing out on your calculated $9.6B per annum. Still, not much help.

    Even at overall 50% recovery of V, they could pay off the $80M capex in 8 months...

    Good possibility that the resource grade ("0.23% vanadium") is actually expressed as V2O5 and not as V, but that only backs out a factor of 1.78 in calculations above.

    I guess we need more help.
 
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