Yes, I know just how you feel - I have been involved with ERG since 1997, and I have ridden the highs and plumbed the depths of their every crisis...the biggest issue they face is dealing with contracts entered into which have no profit margin - back in Fogarty's day, there was a lot of hype, the company had first mover advantage, and, combined with their technology and the HKG success to display to the world, it appeared they were going to conquer the market.
What they didn't count on, was dealing with western ideoligies and the bureaucratic administrations that accompany them. In Asia, things get done, because that's the way it is - make a deal, sign a contract, and the project begins...not too much interference from the government along the way. Contrast this with SYD and SFO - multiple operators to be integrated, multiple fare structures and clients who keeping changing ideas and moving goalposts along the way. Management of this company has been saddled with a legacy that has been crippling (CUBIC's injunction effectively kneecapped ERG), and in my opinion, ERG should have gone for the jugular and counter-sued CUBIC once all the evidence was in place. This did not occur. Add to this the 9/11 disaster, which changed the entire structure of tendering for government infrastructural contracts (ie, insurance companies refused to underwrite the bonding arrangements for major contracts, and the individual tenderer had to supply funds as a guarantee), and ERG was effectively no longer a "going concern".
Along comes an investor, the mercurial Duncan Saville, with enough vision and money to see he will reap large rewards for a very small investment, provided the company can stay afloat long enough to get the contracts in hand up and running.
Now, we have a company which still has excellent technology and a sound management team, but has serious cash-flow problems. This will be the case for probably another year, but things are moving along. With the NSW government returned, and the increased emphasis on transport issues of late, I believe Iemma will fast-track trials and implementation of Tcard, if only to be seen to be doing something about the problem.
Sullivan's reluctance to advise the market of any successes or progress on contracts is probably due to the fact that certain financial commentators (Michael West, for one) derive great satisfaction from deriding any advances the company makes - it would appear that certain financial commentators may have lost their shirts back in the dotcom days, and haven't forgotten about it. Also, ERG deals with not only the business of "the business", but also has to tread a very fine political line. Witness the drawn-out deliberations over Lazio, which was a nightmare, and had to be finessed over a period of time if the company was to ever extract anything from the remains of the deal. ((It should be noted here, that part of the reason for the length of time involved, was again, politicking from the Italians, the nature of their bureaucracy, but more importantly, the fact that, once a system standard has been accepted (ie ERG's technology), it is usual that that defines the standard for the rest of the country, so a long-term view has to be taken here))
So it's a case of slowly, but hopefully, surely for the next 12 months. It remains to be seen if ERG can ever achieve an earnings of 4-5 cents per share, but I believe it is eminently feasible, and when the instos finally turn their attention towards this company, a share price of 70 cents and beyond is not impossible.
Robert Gee of Paterson's is, and has been, the only analyst to cover this company in recent years, so it's been pretty much up to we poor investors to decide what to do.
I have invested a lot (no, make that an IMMENSE) amount of time and money in this company, and I believe that it will pay off handsomely. As Buffet says, "The best time to buy a big company...is when it's a small company". Foresight is a far more valuable commodity than hindsight, in my opinion.
Reading these forums can drive you to distraction, and there's only one or two contributors (Walt, MichaelIrish) who actually know what they're talking about - the rest is just fluff.
Ultimately, it's your money, you make the call - remember that the amounts this company deals with are in the hundreds of millions - a couple of percentage points in its favour will result in a tidy profit, and once the contracts are bedded down and the systems are operational, a secure stream of revenue is assured.
Good luck, and never forget....Keep watching the skies!
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