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19/06/18

17:57

Post #: 33806202
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Originally posted by jakers ↑

Just on the ebitda/MC comparison this is kind of my point...

Using the SYA PFS price assumption of 614/t for both projects (I used 360kt for BGS):

SYA 17 years at 38m ebit, 72m MC.
BGS 20+ years at 158m ebit, 120m MC.

Notice the ebit for BGS is bigger than its ENTIRE MC. At a 614 usd/t price assumption.

So while the SYA ebit figure looks good, the BGS one is monstrously scary.

As for sya's 'phase two', the capex involved on a hydroxide plant is going to likely dilute the stock immensely. See nemaska, 700m+ for plant. Won't be able to pay for this earning 35m a year. deposit too small to scale to a refinery imo.

For comparison BGS can simply double their spod production I.e 4Mtpa for minimal capex and punch out over 300Mil a year even at 600/t spod prices. That is ridiculous money. Again current MC 120Mil with 10Mil in bank and guaranteed gold income stream.

Now I'm drooling a little...

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Great Analysis! - I've used up my Great Analysis buttons today!

BGS Price at posting: 52.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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