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06/03/19
14:19
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Originally posted by mikesz:
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Just my brain dump while on train heading home. Seems like a good list adding to every ones SWOT. Strengths jurisdiction - operating in a safe and stable economic environment Projects - well proven resources at Sconi with significant potential for expansion at Sconi, Flemington and Thackaringa Solid infrastructure at Sconi - access to water, power, electricity, transport and housing Offtake - 100% binding offtake for Sconi from SKI destined for Mercedes 20% ownership from SKI - prevents takeover down the road Management - solid, experienced and shareholder focussed management team Demo plant - optimises and derisks process flow and product output Gen5 based plant design - well proven plant design derisks processing complications (no proprietary tech) Institutional investment - funding and stable register Low or no dilution preference - management team stated preference to do funding without dilution Product - proven high quality product delivered directly to battery manufacturing Operating in a growth mega trend EV revolution - growing demand for product Australian economy - helps to build local jobs and put Australia on the EV map Non-core assets - gold and copper assets can be spun off Funding - help from SKI to secure funding for construction Workforce - local skilled workforce available Opportunities scandium - high tech alloys and scandium market research may yield an unexpected upside to the whole company. Automotive and aerospace and marine industry opportunities Tenements - Flemington and Thack and Sconi show promise for significant resource increase in a growing sector Weaknesses management - inexperienced CEO (in relation to running a global organisation) eg market announcements, slips of the tongue, presence Australia jurisdiction - must comply with strict requirements and environmental protection regime Threats environmental approval - still outstanding for Sconi and may cause issues (need to check this) Plant build - very complex build that needs careful planning and design and construction (mitigated by have demo plant and SKI assistance) Funding - not being able to secure on attractive terms Slow ramp up - may experience slower than expected ramp up at Sconi Metal market fluctuations - prices for Cobalt and Nickel may go lower worsening the economic return for the company Battery tech change - may reduce industry reliance for Cobalt and Nickel (probably quite low at this stage) SKI pulls out - SKI may pull out if AUZ can’t deliver on time (low chance with SKI help and Merc pressure) Management - key personnel depart from company Counter-party risks - something happens to SKI or they change how they want to do business with AUZ BFS not as attractive - may affect decision to mine or invest
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Interesting looking back on this thread almost a year later. @mikesz post here seems to have been the most comprehensive at the time and was pretty accurate with the weaknesses i.e funding /metals market / SKI calls. Let's hope the strengths start to deliver over the next 6 months. I'm going to make a call that the revised BFS will be delayed with the hope that nickel / cobalt spot prices improve. There will be some new excuse picked out as to the reason for the delay, maybe the plant will need to be moved again.