CRS have a 2 million ounce Resource. On 17 March 06, Croesus Chairman, Michael Kiernan, said further "that the Norseman ore bodies are sound and the Company’s regional tenements highly prospective."
The infrastructure is in place and operational.
The main problems are developmental and consequently so to is the 220000 oz sold forward @ around A$600/oz. (Negative A$35 million??)
So they need to either close out or postpone forwards.
Say cost A$35 million less $ 10 mil cash and liquid current assets = $25 million.
How much will it cost to redesign and redevelop the mine to a profitable standard?
Say $25 million (a wild guess)
What is a reasonable valuation/ oz resource for a profitable, operational mine?
Say $90/oz for what the Chairman says is a sound ore body.
At 2 mill oz potential value of $180 million -- less net $25 mil (net) to close out forwards – less another $25 mil developmental expenses = gives a potential valuation of $130 million.
Now Michael Kiernan has a duty of care to both MRS and CRS shareholders, and in this situation CRS has little power – but there is still a potential worth of $130 million or whatever other figure you choose.
Norseman has a profitable resource –70 years of continuous mining is proof of that.
It has had atrocious management since WMC sold it to CRS.
Michael Kiernan seems a straight shooter – I quote him:
Friday, March 17, 2006:
“The mining plan could not supply the amount of hedging ounces required," he said. "Clearly we had a mine plan that was rubbish.”
And again: “it's a great orebody, there's great exploration prospectively and it hasn't been run properly."
“CRS will remain in a trading halt for at least another two weeks as a new mine plan for its mainstay Norseman operation is developed, but Chairman Michael Kiernan is adamant the problems do not signal the end of the company.”
They are very strong words – one management to another.
I do not pretend that the picture is pretty – I do not have any idea of an outcome – but is not all over.
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