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Survival of the Fittest, page-63

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rexsh

4,041 Posts.

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14/01/15

12:56

Post #: 14581937
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Originally posted by 618 ↑

I must be one of the largest holder in STX that constantly sound like such a wet blanket - but your statement is somewhat untrue. If CB turns out to be non-commercial, STX could quite easily (and most likely will) be smashed right into the walls into smithereens (using your analogy). Right now, it is progressing well but until such time it is actually proven commercial, we have to price the risk of some unknown unknowns throwing a terminal curveball at us. Hence, the project is still risked at 50% COS in my model rather than any higher. It has come a long way from 10% at the beginning but still a fair way to go till 70% when it is declared commercial.

Note: Nothing is ever at 100% due to production risk, and I usually allocate 20% for risk associated with development phase of a project. So it is producing, it will be at 90%.

618

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618, given you have your model risked at 50% COS. Could you tell me what your model is spitting out as a valuation for the company as at today ?
thanks in advance

DLS Price at posting: 72.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held

SXY Price at posting: 29.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held

STX Price at posting: 11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 20.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $644.7M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
20.0¢	21.3¢	20.0¢	$741.8K	3.578M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
14	968233	20.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
21.0¢	751052	8

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	41542	0.065
1	49500	0.063
2	181695	0.062
4	227100	0.061
3	64667	0.060

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.066	73350	1
0.067	100000	1
0.068	194209	3
0.070	40000	1
0.071	123966	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 29/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

STX (ASX) Chart