Survival of the Fittest, page-45

Yes, Elliot5, agree with all of ur comments as usual. Thought of ur reaction when writing the post, I even wondered what u would respond with. SXY's SP appreciation is a no-brainer IMHO. I keep on reading the AR, announcements & reviewing ID's profile, the others such as Trevor Bourne etc just to see whether I have missed anything due to optimism bias. Still can't see a major problem except SXY SP's associated shorters. Shorters picked it up above 5o cents & seem to have played with it so when it hits above 50c, blue sky will be present if it is not TO'd b4 then. The POO fall gave shorters plenty of ammo & now SXY SP is still at 31c (after a long time resisting levels at or below this level) so the upside run will b quite strong when it comes. (BTW: Shorters seem to disappear on up days hence the RSI but do seem to respond to negative closing ticks, atypical behaviour for them, that should indicate shorters have flexible positions & will fall away for good when a decent run occurs)

On ur issues re TO, main issue is the finance & for that US players such as CVX (been in Australia for years with cornerstone holding in CTX pre its refiner only days may be obvious suitor but it has Gorgon & BPT interests to absorb & consolidate with it), COP has some LNG in Australia or XOM (without any serious Australian assets but had some previously) may make an offer, I agree.

I would not hope for a TO bid or unproductive JV (as there should not be a need to sell out when SP is depressed) but thinking about logically if ORG, CLP & AGL r sensible, to make a TO bid call from their side is obvious, sensible & will b productive & value accreting.

ASX50 companies r just too risk averse, lack "animal spirits" & have anti-competitive corporate lending rates (note ANZ fund SXY, r main panellist on ORG & cover almost half the finance/ credit commitments for these upstream O&G producers, no other banks seem to competitively price/ tender for them). As an aside, an ANZ/StanChart merger may be helpful for the whole O&G industry in Oz when it happens & if it is approved by Hockey. may get corporate lending & credit commitments to Cooper project going like other O&G developments in other countries. Who funded shale gas producers & were they not bulge bracket banks owned by the US taxpayer?

Also, along with US players, CLP on the HKEx (with its EnergyAustralia interest & multiple funding sources) & perhaps even BG Group (although its SP on FTSE weak atm) might b more suited to buying them because SXY as a way to increase a downstream player's profits is a no-brainer IMHO but please all DYOR.