I am literally using a revenue multiple in this case and not making any assumptions about profitability.
Because LiveTiles is an early stage growth company I am personally more comfortable in using a revenue multiple. Having said that, there is nothing wrong in trying to determine profitability. I just think that if you look at profitability you may have to make more assumptions.
I used $113m ARR from Checksmcgee for my estimates of future LiveTiles valuations.
Amazon illustrates the difference between the two approaches. For a long time Jeff Bezos reinvested cashflow back into the business. Consequently revenue grew extremely rapidly but profitability lagged. If LiveTiles successfully grows revenues and chooses to reinvest heavily into the business profitability will lag too. If instead it chooses to reinvest lesser amounts back into the business profitability will grow more rapidly.
If LiveTiles generates high returns upon its reinvested dollars then as shareholders we should welcome that reinvestment even if it means higher profitability is deferred into the future.
LVT Price at posting:
54.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held