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From memory Surprise pumped at $US90 bbl in 2014 and stopped in 2015 when the POO collapsed to $US40.
I can't recall any cop data for Surprise but it would have been mainly transport costs given its remote location? The initial flow was under natural pressure not pumped but then it started to diminish. It was a sweet light diesel more like Brent than WTI so should sell at a premium. Brent has cracked US$70 bbl and AU is weakening against USD. Geopolitical risks could drive the POO much higher (see below). The output was trucked in tankers to Alice Springs where there was much discussion about processing it for diesel use locally. There were comparisons with Mereenie oil that needs only to be run through a filter to remove sand and it's ready to use. If Surprise comes on line again with the rising POO it could be a small but useful money maker for the company. It would also keep the tradition owners happy as they would start getting their royalties again under the Land Use Agreement.
Oil prices vulnerable to 'super spikes' again as geopolitics heats up
- The long era of too much oil sloshing around the world and low prices is coming to an end, just as global events are heating up crude prices.
- That means there's a new higher floor under oil prices as the peak summer demand season approaches, and it also makes the market vulnerable to a "super spike" if there's any significant supply disruption.
- Oil is pricing in a risk premium for the first time since Russia and OPEC struck a deal to curb production as a way to reduce oil supplies and support prices.
Patti Domm |
@pattidomm
Published 12:31 PM ET Fri, 13 April 2018 Updated 21 Hours AgoCNBC.com
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Ahmad Al-Rybaye | AFP | Getty Images
Iraqi forces flash the sign for victory while driving past an oil production plant as they head towards the city of Kirkuk during an operation against Kurdish fighters on October 16, 2017.
The long era of too much oil sloshing around the world and low prices is coming to an end, just as global events are heating up crude prices.
On Friday, President Donald Trump
ordered U.S. forces to join France and Britain in launching targeted strikes in Syria, in retaliation for an attack on civilians that employed chemical weapons. With other parts of the world already in turmoil, fallout from Syria could upend the dynamic, as the peak summer season for oil demand approaches, keeping oil prices in a new, elevated range.
"Syria is a client state of Russia and Iran," said John Kilduff, energy analyst at Again Capital. In his speech, Trump
singled out both countries for their support of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
"We wait to see if her enablers step up and respond on Syria's behalf," he said — just as
Russia warned of "consequences" for the U.S.-led attack.
Gasoline prices are also vulnerable. They are already expected to hit a four-year high this summer.
"The supply cushion is gone. There was a security cushion, and that's gone," said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. "A lot of things are happening at the same time."
Brent crude, the international benchmark, was up 7.8 percent in the past week and was trading near $73 a barrel in the futures market for the first time since December 2014. "It's probably in an orbit around $70," said Yergin, adding the floor could be high $60s to low $70s for Brent.
