surferstu posts, page-9

Stu,

Thank you for a very helpful post. I'm torn.

Suppose you take the 4.1Moz and treat it as inferred. You then give each ounce a wildly guesstimated ASX explorer in-ground value of $15 (IMO, the figure needs to be risked for a possibly sub-normal inferred-to-reserve conversion rate, plus GFC2-level discrimination against micro-cap explorers). Multiplying 4.1M x $15, you end up with $61M, compared to a market cap of roughly $27M (net of cash) at present. That might imply that the current share price could get to 36cx(61M+27M)/50M = 64c.

What could catalyse a short-to-medium term re-rating, without equally boosting alternative stocks?

1. Media articles or broker reports about CRK? Maaaybe
2. Newsflow - Good results from 7 holes? Maaaybe
3. Newsflow - Production plans (toll, etc.)? Purrrrrobably
4. Newsflow - JP Morgan finish selling? Maaaybe
5. Newsflow - Corporate action? Purrrrrobably
6. TA traders move in as share price bottoms out? Maaaybe
7. Outperformance by management and board? Maaaybe

That has to be balanced against negative risk factors, such as the pariah status of explorers relative to producers when credit is tight.

An unusual factor (assuming that NGF toll-treatment or some other NGF tie-up is being contemplated by CRK) might be NGF solvency, given that it has a bill of $107M to pay off over the next 4 years, plus it has high operating costs.

Dunno.

I can see that I might miss something by staying out, but...