OK - new update on Supply. I suspect SQM will gradually move up to their limit - over 425 ktpa, as 425 ktpa LCE was their yearly average that was approved from 2018 to 2030.
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Column 5
Column 6
Column 7
Column 8
0
NOW
2018
2019
2020
2021
not sure
1
SQM
48000
22000
50000
60000
260000
Brine
2
Albemarle
50000
20000
55000
Brine
3
FMC
46000
Brine
4
Ganfeng
30000
Hard Rock
5
Tianqi
34000
Hard Rock
6
Other China adj
23000
Both
7
ORE
17500
Brine
8
PLS
42000
Hard Rock
9
PLS stage 2
37000
Hard Rock
10
AJM
37000
Hard Rock
11
Mt Marion
64000
8000
Hard Rock
12
Mt Cattlin
22000
6000
Hard Rock
13
Mt Holland via Lake J
32000
Hard Rock
14
Nemaska Whabouchi
44000
Hard Rock
15
Cauchari
25000
25000
Brine
16
Greenbushes
80000
80000
20000
HG Hard Rock
17
ORE expansion
25000
Brine
18
Sal De Vida
25000
Brine
19
AJM stage 2
35000
Hard Rock
20
Wodgina
80000
40000
DSO Hard Rock
21
Bald Hill - Tawana/AMAL
25000
Hard Rock
22
NAL - La Corne
25000
Hard Rock
23
Qinghai - China - 50000 LCE
No project
24
adjustment for China
-67000
Hard Rock
25
Totals
347500
245000
167000
241000
60000
365000
1425500
Column 1
0
note - probably some doubling up between Chinese producers + and hard rock projects
1
SQM - Permit to produce 5100 kt LCE up to 2030, averages 425 ktpa LCE
2
all projects are listed at completed target production - but most will take a long while to ramp up to there
3
all rough numbers - about 20% of hard rock Li is not recoverable
4
Much Greenbushes production assumed to be counted in China numbers - hence adjustment
5
All in Lithium Carbonate Equivalent - LCE, assumes 80% conversion from hard rock conc
6
I have found data that 20ktpa LCE is sourced from China, and 67 ktpa is from imported sources
