Thanks @persistentone Sorry - too much for me to do. I have...

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    Thanks @persistentone
    Sorry - too much for me to do. I have tried to upload a csv but not allowed.

    I see today that Morgan Stanley is coming to the same conclusion as I have re overwhelming supply.

    https://www.ft.com/content/66012fe2-1ae1-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6

    Really the market will soon produce as much of these Li materials as the market wants - as there is such an abundance of the stuff.

    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9
    1   NOW 2018 2019 2020 2021 not sure    
    2 SQM 50000   13000 25000 25000 102000   Brine
    3 Albemarle 50000   20000 55000       Brine
    4 FMC 46000             Brine
    5 Ganfeng 30000             Hard Rock
    6 Tianqi 34000             from existing hard rock
    7 Other China adj 23000             Both
    8 ORE 17500             Brine
    9 PLS   42000       37000   Hard Rock
    10 AJM   37000           Hard Rock
    11 Mt Marion 64000 8000           Hard Rock
    12 Mt Cattlin 22000 6000           Hard Rock
    13 Mt Holland via Lake J     32000         Hard Rock
    14 Whabouchi           no project Hard Rock  
    15 Cauchari       25000   25000   Brine
    16 Greenbushes 80000     80000   20000   High grade Hard Rock
    17 ORE expansion     25000         Brine
    18 Sal De Vida           25000   Brine
    19 AJM stage 2           35000   Hard Rock
    20 Wodgina   80000 40000         Hard Rock
    21 Bald Hill - Tawana   25000           Hard Rock
    22 adjustment for China -67000              
    23 totals - non cum 416500 198000 130000 185000 25000 244000    
    Column 1
    1 note - probably some doubling up between Chinese producers + and hard rock projects
    2 all projects are listed at completed target production - but most will take a long while to ramp up to there
    3 all rough numbers - about 20% of hard rock Li is not recoverable
    4 Much Greenbushes production assumed to be counted in China numbers - hence adjustment
    5 All in Lithium Carbonate Equivalent - LCE, assumes 80% conversion from hard rock conc
    6 I have found data that 20ktpa LCE is sourced from China, and 67 ktpa is from  imported sources
    7 http://www.indmin.com/events/download.ashx/document/speaker/E000994/a0ID000000arDqQMAU/Presentation
    8 Don't rely on these numbers - lol
    Last edited by CaptainBarnacles: 27/02/18
 
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