SUN just downgrade by GS, APP-S, page-17

Hello Jimmorrison, I have never traded IAG but I have traded QBE in the past. But it has been a long time since I touched QBE. Not because there is anything wrong with it, just been busy with other stocks.

I usually stay away from any stock outside of the top 10 biggest ASX companies. I got involved with QBE for a whle and made some money, then left it as I wanted to keep the gains I made. If you continue dicking around with a stock, you may end up giving everything back. So I wanted to avoid that.

Coming back to SUN, I got attracted to this current downtrend, so I got involved a little during the days of my last post here. I did feel that day was a day to buy. BUT, only for a trade, because that's what I mostly do. And with hindsight, it was the day to buy for around a 4% return.

But, even I said a buy on that day, I never liked the fact that it got close to that lower trend line but never really touched it. That never sat well with me and that is why I got out. Until the other day where I went back in at $12.50 where I saw it finally came to touch the line. But what I don't like this time, is that the price pierce the line. I don't like that. Pierced, but at least always closed above it.

I would now look at SUN's previous declines as a guide. We got -26.5% during December 2015 into February 2016 and -19.0% during August-November 2016. We are currently just shy of the last -19% decline. If we apply that same level of decline, we get $12.34, kind of there. BUT, I always like to take a worse case and that would be to apply the -26.5% and see what we get for this decline. And that is $15.24x0.735=$11.20.

I am not saying $11.20 is going to happen. I don't think it will. But it is good to know about it.

Given the positive divergence in, and oversold levels of all RSI, DMI and stochastics (and arrival at the lower trend line), I would say we are ready for a bounce.

What concerns me a little is that a bounce hasn't come yet. And that most of SUN's bottoms are quite dramatic (long deep range price candles) capitulation kind of stuff. And that hasn't happened yet.

Anyway, I wont say anything definite yet, just my thoughts f anyone was interested.

My long term view on SUN is good. It is growing and hence the high PE of 15 something even given this -19% drop.