Substantially Undervalued, O&G Situation in play, page-102

As I've posted several times before, (probably more on ADVFN than here) there is a Sweet Spot within the Double AA Wells field. The field has produced over 400 BCF of gas and 20 million barrels of condensate from a total of 59 wells which were drilled on the field.

Nearly 50% of production (201 BCF + 10.25 MMBO) has come from just 10 of those wells which occur in the sweet spots.

The 2 best wells had EUR's of over 6.75MMboe, the lowest 2 of the 10 had EUR's of 2.0MMboe & 2.75MMboe. The average EUR for those 10 wells is 4.3MMboe.

There might be 2 other wells that are at or above the whole field EUR average number of 1.75MMboe, meaning @ 45 wells were below it.

Putting things in context VOBM#1 on this weeks numbers looks like it would rank as the 11th best well, were it part of the Double AA Wells field (which we know it isn't, but gives a good comparison).

I did some back of the envelope numbers on VOBM#1 using a 1.5MMboe EUR, Oil price static @ $45, NGL static @ $22.5 & Nat Gas static @ $2.50 for 1100 BTU gas.

I broke the 1.5MMboe down into 450,000 BO, 50,000 B of NGL & 6 BCF of nat gas.

That gives you $36.375M of gross income for the well, I then deducted $6M ($4 per boe to be safe) for costs & then deducted 25% of the new figure (@ $7.6M) to cover landowner royalties.

That left an undiscounted value of $22.75M for VOBM#1 (of which 50% is PANR's share).

There are reported to be 37 possible well locations on prospect A !!

AXT @ 5 cents against its fully discounted NAV of 7.8 cents, crazy to say the least

LOTM