The only thing one must believe in is the contango between the...

The only thing one must believe in is the contango between the current spot and future LT prices that utilities have locked in. Unfortunately, we can’t really look at their commercial agreements and one can’t even call a company and ask what percentage of sales come from spot and how many from long term contracts. I know because Ive tried calling both PDN and ERA.

I put emphasis on the contango because if the spread between spot and LT continues to converge, then one must assume that the market indeed is reaching a balance. This is where it could be interesting because if output curtailment has been done too much, which I am assuming is and will be the case, then spot prices could sky rocket. Of course, that is the punt and who knows when or if it will happen. So far so good though.

That’s why I posted this thread, to bring up what I believe is an indication of STP volatility, which could be positive for plays like PDN, YCA.l and CCJ in Canada.

The etf might give you a basket of U plays... but I rather concentrate my investment on their top two holdings rather than the whole etf, hence why I haven’t invested in it.

You still didn’t answer why URA?

Also I may add that the elephant in the room that I’ve been pointing to with the U story is the rise in natural gas prices, which I’ve been bullish on since they were around $3.10 spot. This should provide further support for nuclear restarts in Japan, and lead to other nations consuming a lot of imported natural gas to review that role of nuclear energy in their electricity generating mix.

I will be adding some ERA tomorrow to my U portfolio, just because I believe that RIO has been calculatingly waiting for U economics to improve before deciding the fate of their operations with the Mirrar. My assumption on this one is that the economics will improve, and as a result they will agree with the mirrar to extend operations for a further 5 years, at least until the financing for both the rehabilitation provisions and the future of Jabiru is guaranteed to some extent. I do believe that ERA is undervalued at present, however the risks are as big as is the reward. To be fair, it’s very disappointing to see a miner with great potential projects being operationally wound up. It just doesn’t make any sense not to use the cash generating potential of a longstanding, but controversial, U mine(s). I’m hoping that the Mirrar and RIO have just been waiting for the market to improve, and that they are also weighing out the repercussions on jabiru from stopping operations.

Back to your suggestion if URA, it’s hard to see your point of view being that my U stock portfolio moved heavily into the green today as a result of PDN’s recent rise.

Also, just because something is illiquid, it doesn’t indicate that it’s impossible for it to reflect the true price. Sure you have to be careful, but moves in certain U plays indicate that the U spot price is indeed increasing with company values.