Ktrianta the market has to "tighten" 1st ...... the punters only...

Ktrianta

the market has to "tighten" 1st ......

the punters only buy a warrant if they think/feel that chg in price in their hold period is greater than hold cost (ie they actually pay a fee to inventory co's ....)....

at the minute - there is still circa 40-50Kt "available" .......

historically the "trigger" for moves in price is around 8 weeks of global supply .....if you assume 1.92 - 1.95mT for 2015 - this is circa 310 - 330/340 Kt  (+/-) ......(total "available" .......) ...the lme traders will then start to think that supply is perhaps a little constained ....and will inc the amt of on warrant metal .....for a real purchaser to then buy - he will have to think abt "paying up" or seeking alternative supply (intermediate products).  typically - the 1st thing to move is stainless steel scrap !!!!

what we do know is:
1. major users have "destocked" .....
2. around 80-100Kt has been removed from supply chain
3. Fe-Ni plants loosing money (and china looking to reduce output from a couple of these plants)..
4. demand growth for 2016 is est at around 2-3% (from 5% +/- historical).....
5. the "trend" in apparent consumption (ie stock draw) has increase from 800-1200 T /pd) to circa 2000-2200T / pd .......(from mid Sept)

perhaps this is the 1st sign of end users "restocking" ??????

everyone is "convinced" that China will slow into 2016 ......and steel demand is falling .........
there is not a strong correlation between steel consumption and stainless steel consumption !!!!!

I rekon we have maybe 2 months "to wait" ........however nickel is the most volatile of all the base metals .......

one of the chaps on the POS forum - posted a good link .....

http://www.westmetall.de/en/markdaten.php?action=show_table&field=LME_Ni_cash

you just have to copy / dump it into excel .....a bit more uptodate than kitco !

rgds

V_H