They are just grabbing at numbers ; upside is huge . Based on 100mmblo recoverable , that is what the drill bit has to find . They know no more than anyone else . Even if the find is half as good as the max expected the result will be huge still . Let us follow the drill bit ....
Ofcourse there are risks , but the share price here is just above cash backing and value of USA oil assets . So , it is an exciting play .