I will stand by 50c within 2 weeks of going ex-div. However I accept your evidence that it may fall by more than the div in the short term.
That occurs because holders who only bought for the div and attatched franking credits quit the stock as soon as they got what they came for. However others looking for a pure exploration/growth play will come in once it ceases to be a yield/tax play.
Just my HO.
EXS Price at posting:
63.5¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held