horse-poop ! always a good idea to ask "why" .......(imho) ........

horse-poop !

always a good idea to ask "why" .......(imho) .....

over the next 3 years, I would expect STO to:

1. FID for Narrabri csm project - cost 3 - 3,5bn (subject to approvals etc etc)
2. infill drill in the CB - cost 800-900m
3. acquire additional productive assets in easten Oz - circa 1-1.5bn (SXY is my best guess)
4. do some sort of deal in PNG (basically swapping assets to move further up the food chain - re png expansion......)- cost - pot > 1bn
5. do a deal re backfill for D-lng ........
6. do a deal re access to icthys field plant (they will essentially toll treat > 2028+6+)

so 5-8bn in capital spend .......
or "mega-merger" .....

basically - this thing doesn't earn its cost of capital (and arguably - this is why is has traded at and below "book value") .......

as Croas has said - it will need 80+ oil to generate "satisfactory" rtns ......

I still think its in play - but the acquirer has worked out the Board is somewhat "recalicitrent" .......and the SA Govt wants to ensure a major corp remains in sunny SA ..........this makes it more difficult ......

will be interesting to see how its plays out !

rgds
V_H