STO $6.86, page-2

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/06/chi...rgy-is-causing-a-gas-shortage-for-winter.html

"This is even as domestic natural gas output rose 9.7 percent in the first 10 months of the year, official data show, according to Reuters. Pipeline imports from central Asian suppliers were also up, rising 5.9 percent in the first 10 months of 2017. LNG imports surged almost 50 percent in the same period."

Did you noticed the last sentence? The current pullback is attributed mainly to profit taking, imho, with a bit impact from the overall index.  The recent offer price $4.55 should be a strong support if 4.80 not hold.   

Read the recent investor presentation again.  The 'FCF' breakeven in sto reports should be defined as operation cash flow which is about $2b in 2018, assuming OP at $62 and BE at $32.  My estimate real FCF for Q4 is $280 --- net debt reduction in Q4.  The full year FCF will be US$700, excl. items, or A$0.46 per share.  That would give a reasonable sp between 5 and 10, depending on market sentiment.