Yes I agree on DCF as preferred method of valuation - but as you say there is just as much art as there is science to that and the terminal growth rate is a big part of that as is macro commodity price forecast. Those Independent Experts don't have magic beans - they use the same tools as some of us also use, an in cyclical downturn the "value" that comes out is not representative of the value in the company went the cyclical upturn comes into play, IMO. Same as when acquisition made at the top of cycle (just ask TA and MK of their ill timed acquisitions) and book value of assets at top.
So on the hedging - I know how the collars work and the graph provided by STO illustrates it well. I'm not sure I follow your zero cost comment. The zero cost is simply that the cost to purchase the long put is covered by the sale of the short call and short put ... ergo zero cost. My concern is have they possibly over hedged (and I know these are cash settled so it doesn't really matter how much is produced per se). I'd like to see how active they are each month with hedging.
I think KG and co are doing well at present.
STO Price at posting:
$5.05 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
