GRR 0.00% 26.0¢ grange resources limited.

Still trading at Disc to Cash. Why?, page-538

  1. 15,774 Posts.
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    These are the guys who called IO at 30 and Oil at 20 and gold at 800 for 2016 . They are clowns

    Guys - I had a conversation with the CFO which will be continued tomorrow as I am going to make sure I understand the GRR business fully . I am told the company will do more in Investor Comms and I mentioned I heard this 6 months ago for zero result. We discussed the need to discuss expectations of cash flow and costs going forward. One thing I did understand is the slippages caused by wet weather on the last quarter impact costs in the ways , one there is remedial work to stabilise walls and then there is less movement of ore which creates in affect a double whammy on costs .
    Working backwards and assuming costs on the higher end ( 85 ) which is likely to come in Lower , I estimate that with current pellet price of 104 ( excluding today's increase ) the realised pellet price of 92 usd should be reflected in a AUD price of 124 and thus margins of 37 dollars or time . Thus cash flow even if cash costs remain at 85 should be over 20m. Even with the spend on mill parts , cash should increase by circa 6-8 m this quarter with the additional benefit of having funded more than half the total mill changer costs . This shores up the likelihood of another .5c dividend for the half year . So my conclusion is if costs remain in the mid 80s which apparently they won't , the current margins will see cash increase which is great given mill changeover costs

    By this time tomorrow I should be able to understand the numbers and importantly the likely future numbers a whole lot better . In the end I want to be estimating the quarterly results a whole lot better
 
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