I have had a relook and I think I have made a significant error...

I have had a relook and I think I have made a significant error in my calculations the Osprey development.

Osprey is a south headlands development by the WA government which is now certain to end badly for someone.

Originally I thought this was a similar arrangement as the Rio searipple but looking closer at the accounts I don't think it is.

It's 293 houses and operational by September 2013.

so who owns it? are the WA Government paying on a per house built basis? and FWD merely run the village when it's competed?

Looking at the cashflow from the December 2012 accounts spend on PP&E was 14M down from $16M the previous year.

FWD have stated that 80 houses will be built at Osprey in the Dec 2012 Qtr so simple logic means that the WA government are buying on an as built basis and they are not being capitalized on FWD's Balance Sheet.

On first blush this looks great, low risk selling!

But that does not sit true with a guidance on lower profits than the first half and for the full year, which is terrible.

The only rational conclusion is the other parts of FWD are going so bad it's not funny.

So my debt guess for FWD will be lower, but profitability going forward will be terrible. They wont get another 293 housing deal again anytime soon, and they did this in a year that profits were terrible!!

This Stock may be even worse than I first thought.

Cheers