"Price wars can result which can hit earnings.'Noom you sure go...

"Price wars can result which can hit earnings.'

Noom you sure go in for the big understatements"

Of course this is just adding to all the fear.

The share price wouldn't be at current levels if it wasn't.

Just look at how quickly this baby has fallen.

Another stock to look at for an example in market psychology is MYR & JBH, both stocks I have in my portfolio.

Plenty of shorter and negative interest in these two stocks last year. Yet the share price became 'abnormally' low even after the risk factors.
People were to scared to buy.
I wasn't. Have made very nice profits on them (although with Myr I sold 75% of my holdings into the massive price run).

In a normal market, you don't get many opportunities to buy stocks with a 'rosy' outlook at discounted prices. The only time such instances occur is during major market corrections (such as the GFC, and I made penty of money out of that as well).


I run my portfolios like an insurance company. I need plenty of policies so no single policy blows me up. I operate on the probability of margins. Some individual positions will work out, some wont.

FWD now meets my criteria to build an exposure.
Yes there are some very valid risk factors out there, so I am definitely not going all in on this stock.

However I am quite happy with my initial position. I will continue to watch market pricing against updated fundamentals (as they occur). If fundamentals (depressed as they might be but so long as they are not more depressed) remain constant, yet the share price continues to drop, I will slowly increase positions.

However I will not allow the position to occupy a position greater than 5% of the portfolio as a whole.

This way even if I am wrong, my whole portfolio does not blow up.

Insurance policies within insurance policies.