starting to buy again, page-5

Noomxx

Good on you for making a case.

Cash flow from operations is important - at least that is positive.

Your point about capex decreasing is valid. stay in business capex will continue , but as you say at much reduced levels. at least a few mill a year.

issue I have is that most of that capex funded over last 12 months ( thanks to over generous dividend policy ) has been debt funded.

they will need to repay this debt out of that cash-flow ( and we do not know term of facility - amortisation could be quite aggressive , chewing most of it up ) . plus company tax will be paid monthly from jan 2014 - a further impost on cash-flow.

additionally osprey build has kept factory busy. once this has stopped, not a lot to replace it - so that operating cash-flow will potentially be diminished.

so they will be paying for past capex from future cash-flow in a flat ( at best ) to declining market.

doesn't leave a lot of room to reward shareholders.

Baraka