Do you own TON?? Why not mention SYR, their other neighbour.. As...

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mabrook

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28/10/14

14:34

Post #: 14193799
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Originally posted by Freehold ↑

Well my quick back of the fag packet numbers are as follow (Numbers are approx):

Currently OGI has

400m Share On issue (See last 3b, 21 Oct)
32m Options On issue (See last 3b, 21 Oct)
18.9m Share not yet issued (See last 3b, 21 Oct)
------------------
451.9 Shares total

Therefore right now the Fully diluted mcap @ 0.012c (Last traded price) = $5.4m

Now dilute 451.9 by 67:1 to have 6.7m shares and a Mcap of $5.4m
The share price after dilution (assuming current price 0.012) is 80.4c

Now the company will dilute by Cap raise $3.5m and $6m via prospectus.
So with costs lets call it a $10m Dilution. This dilution (assuming new post consolidation price of 80.4c) is :-

10,000,000 x .804 = 12.4 mill new shares issued

So post consolidation and prospectus cap raise we have
6.7m + 12.4m = 19.1m shares and a Mcap of $15.4m

Now OGI bought Balama for a $300k + a fixed 10m Shares but there are 3 performance targets A,B & C with shares attached:-

A. 14m Shares if Jorc 50mt @5% attained
B. 14m Shares (plus $1.5m cash) if Jorc 100mt @ 5% attained
C. 14m Shares if Jorc 500mt @ 5% attained

So 10m Shares + existing 19.1m shares = 29.1m Shares and Mcap of $24m before performance shares issued

Now add 14m Shares (or $11.2m in Mcap) for each performance hurdles (A, B & C)

A. 14m Shares or $11.2 Mcap
B. 14m Shares or $11.2 Mcap (Plus $1.5m cash)
C. 14m Shares or $11.2 Mcap

So assuming they Jorc up 500mt@ 5% the today shares on issue would be 61m and Mcap would be:-

$24m + $11.2m + $11.2m + $11.2m = $57.6m (Not including the $300k purchase cost and Performance B: $1.5 cash )

As I said a roughie calculation and a lot of guess work as and we don't know the Cap raise price or the price the consolidation will occur at.

So is it a compelling buy right now at 0.012c given they have not even drilled yet and their neighbour TON has already defined 1+ bill Tonnes at 10% (and likely to double) and Ton's Mcap is only around $100m Undiluted.?

IMHO Its not compelling buy right now... given the uncertainties and the fact that you can buy sure thing with TON for $100m Mcap (undiluted) but please DYOR and make your own mind up ... I'll be leaving it alone at this price ....

All is IMHO

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Do you own TON?? Why not mention SYR, their other neighbour..
As you said it is a roughie calculation and guesswork. So how come OGI is so uncompelling and TON, so compelling??

Last edited by mabrook: 28/10/14

OGI Price at posting: 1.2¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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