Good attempt to sum up the case for AML, couple of points I would highlight in your assessment - addressed in order that you posted for clarity:
1. don't make the assumption that this is a battery metal investment, this is a potentially high grade copper orebody with accessory cobalt and the silver grades may help the economics but the high copper content and potential value make this more of a copper play than anything else. As Barolobil also maintains in his assessment. Not going to comment on institutional investors any further.
2. no issues with the management team - if you ever have doubts or problems with how management are going then its time to sell..
4. although $30M in the bank is a lot better place than many other explorers there is still a lot of drilling to do before they decide to go mining.
5. really should be talking about sulphide ore and oxide ore, never confuse the two, I wouldn't use the term "laterite ore" or "sulphates" in this situation, we don't have them at Walford Creek and use of these terms just confuses people. You are correct in that sulphide copper cobalt and silver ores are generally easier to treat/mill than the oxide ores.
6. Three drill rigs would not the the largest drilling campaign in Australia in 2018 (the year is only 4 days old so that's a bit of a call!) - if you're going to say that, probably better to quote the 30,000 metres planned to be drilled, rather than number of rigs. Meters planned may not amount to actual metres drilled anyway, but the point remains that lots of drilling is required and that the AML guys have got a better handle on the orientation of the orebodies now, so the drilling that is planned should be a more effective test of the size and grade of the potential orebodies than previous drilling.
7. Drill results may or may not drive the SP in the future, remember the market often operates independently of fundamentals in the short term and can mis-price companies on the upside and on the downside. Copper price movements probably will have a greater effect on AML more than any other commodity.
8. Future MC predictions are always difficult but the price of copper and continued exploration success may provide the two main drivers for the share price until we get some sort of definitive resource statement/BFS announcement. Personally - I'm discounting the actual cobalt content and revenue to $ 0 until we can confirm some decent copper grades and tonnages and have a mill constructed that can economically recover cobalt - presumably in a copper concentrate but we will see.
All good reasons for me to continue to hold.
AML Price at posting:
31.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
