Cheers and all opinion only Good one Rob, all in, a very useful...

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04/08/14

11:10

Post #: 13763925
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Originally posted by Rob79 ↑

R15, I took your snooze advice but have been looking at all the quarterlies for a sanity check and forward planning. Below is not advice as this is a hobby and also Valuations are always a bit arbitrary. Still can't fathom this at .009 but it is what it is.

Some ways I have looked at it and the numbers change all the time:

Production at $90k per barrel plus cash: Gives 204 boed x $90k = $18.4m + cash $1.8m = $20.2m = 2.7c

Net assets - December were $18.1m, we have had no dusters and added some exploration/development costs so imo June number will be around $19.5m which is 2.7c

Valuation of reported reserves for existing projects. (See quarterly for table) using these numbers and Oil Price US$106.70, Gas $3.80/mcf gives with 5 year life gets around 2.4c for existing and Louise around 0.8c or around 3.3c if Louise is successful. If we divide by pie r squared we get current level of around 1cent My workings for this are below but please double check.

Most interesting is to compare actual results with peers, they are all at different stages so only a guide but on this basis imo there appears to be a disconnect to the numbers which can be partly explained by sentiment and also overall market. Hope your all travelling ok.

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Cheers and all opinion only

Good one Rob, all in, a very useful summary.

Alternatively a bit of speculation (low risk IMO), (for the gamblers amongst us (if any, LOL)):

For Louise add nett 100 bopd (speculation), then total net 450 bopd X $50k/flowing barrel oil = $22.5m.

If I was a big US user of oil (say a transport co.) then I would buy this up as a cheap hedge (future proofing).

So good value (at present we are at about $5,000/flowing barrel).

Thoughts? Comments?
GGE Price at posting: 0.9¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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