I don't disagree that it is a critical period for the company. The pipeline begins with:
1. Garden IMG - Commissioning in the coming weeks - MO pointed out land behind could be used for expansion
2. CSIRO telescope - Battery/solar all done - must be close - MO mentioned more potential expansion
3. Newcastle - commissioning Q3 2018
4. Delamare - commissioning Q3 2018 - potential to lead to more DOD and more work at delamare
5. Northam - commissioning Q4 calendar year 2018
6. Elizabeth Microgrid - commissioning December 2018
7. Kalbarri - completed June 2019
8. Western Energy Stand alone systems (60) - completed June 2019
9. Ceto 6 in the water - December 2019
10. Mungari - 100 MW - no dates specified
11. Kemmerton - no dates specified
12. Offshore - unsure
13. Mount Peake - unsure
14. Mauritius - unsure
These are what we know and if (and it is a big if) then they are in the vicinity of hundreds of millions. These are what we know. The momentum has built in the last six months with a series of project announcements. None of which were on our radar. They show an ability of the company to identify projects and win tenders. These do have long lead times but they also have multiple sources of revenue within each project. The unknown for projects such as Mungari is the length of time for approval. The construction period are greatly reduced so it may be 5 years and then again it may not.
The pathway to profit lies in those multiple sources of revenue. It also lies in the revenue consistently increasing through either increasing the revenue from existing projects (ie room for expansion) or from winning/developing more projects. I don't need to take MO word for it, they have shown in the first six months that they are capable.
The next quarterly will be very interesting as it has been claimed to show record revenue. MO was very open about needing around 30 million revenue to become profitable. Last quarterly stated for the nine months we were at 5 million. Add to that a record revenue for the quarter (let's be conservative and state it at 2.5 million) and we are sitting at 7.5 million. It needs to grow four times that for the target to be reached. All of the projects listed above are not completed at the time of the last quarterly. In the next year they will all be commissioned and as such we will receive the majority of revenues over the coming 12 months. So in terms of a pathway to profit it is certainly foreseeable.
Do they need more projects? Yes. Have they proven that they can deliver? yes. will they turn a profit? who knows but the risk profile is certainly reducing with each project that is won. Hope there is enough facts there!
