spx 17th to 21st oct 11, page-35

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

the TED still negative with no abating .....the SPXA50R looks impressive.....until compared to the dominant SPXA200R .....to me that implies picture a strong buy on the lows of august by shorter time-frame traders......the 200 m/a pov suggests, by its lack of higher highs, since the immediate/first bounce off the august low, that we are in a transcient bounce, a sellable rally.......the NYAD has failed to make higher highs in tandem with the SPXA200R and also imples that the bounce view maybe correct......the XJO has failed to make good it's promise this week and currently looks as though it requires a huge enema to weed out the weak completely so we can rebuild ......the ftse 5540 and spx 1233 areas are up against strong resistance and may require a few days to go down to get energy to get over their recent highs......this brings a lot of volatility and requires patience on lower time frames and treat all sharp moves with suspicion, especially the news whips.....lower pos sizing.....

frankly, the markets look set, to me, to take their final leg down....on an elliott basis the ftse appears to have the best representation of a bounce from early august where there are measures of equality which has brought the index to the current resistance......the challenge here is that so many markets are in lock-step....even the individual US indecies are rarely out of sync these days even down to the 30 min level they'll track each other and the ramifications are all encompassing......of course, on the positive side, any breaking of the overhead means all markets will take their fairshare of short covering plus the fear of missing out on the long side plus both the technical short time-frame AND the fundamental long-range players will join in......that will bring carnage to the shorters....a break of the overheads will offer next equality target on the ftse very close to 6000

this tempts me to talk about smart money

if enough conversations are held, enough agreements get reached, the smart money may get the indecies over the lines of resistance by hooks of news, as they know exactly, as i've opined here, that breaking those resistances will bring a wave of one-way traffic......basically, i am saying that if we fail to hold from these recent highs in the xjo/ftse/spx and we pass back through 50% of the bounce since the august lows then i shall assume that the old "must go down to get up" is en mode, the smart money is selling hard and we are going to make fresh weekly lows.... not necessarily take out the mar 09 lows.....we don't need to take out those lows although for the xjo i am not so sure that we can avoid doing that.....

ideas......it's all a bit big picture until confirmations