Check out MOG announcement on 20 Feb ...You will see a slide...

Check out MOG announcement on 20 Feb ...

You will see a slide from APACHE which shows the Pg and reserves range.

The 32 mmbo mean reserve figure should be applied with the 34% chance of success. This is great news!!!!

The value to MOG is therefore:

32 mmbo x 0.1667 x $22/bbl = $117m !!!! unrisked OR

117 x 34% = $40m risked!!!

Not sure how many shares on issue fully diluted but 11m/0.14 = 78m shares. Using this the values are:

$1.50 unrisked OR $0.51 risked!!!!

And these are based on Apaches numbers, which are likely to be conservative.

Also note that the Pc is 23% - this risk should be applied to the truncated mean of 43 mmbo.

Yep, definately worth getting into based on this equation.