Red-Frog! I strongly agree with you. If get some DSO, according to presentation can start within 18 mths. I do see GOOD VALUE in FWL with DSO, but MPI plant is completely finished. My earlier post I said TFA needs to contribute to MPI Plant also, not just 3 mtpa to Port of Oaekejee and not contributing anything to MPI. That's one reason Sin Tang wasn't happy. TFA took 3 mtpa (possibly DSO) without any contribution to MPI, left FWL nothing to bargain with.
FWL lost 3 mtpa out of 4.5 mtpa, it would be impossible to find a JV partner for MPI plant. Several alternative options to MPI plant...
1) Sell 1.5 mtpa (FWL) to TFA, either FWL takes royalty or TFA takes sell commission.
2) TFA take over entire company AFTER they bought Sin Tang shares, because Sin Tang's 10% holding can block the take over. This way TFA gets entire 4.5 mtpa or even more. Take big share holders with them if they still want continue investing in this company.
Once get some cash flow going (eg 4.5 mtpa DSO), TFA can re-float FWL into either ASX, HK or China exchange for much higher prices, so big share holders can sell out. By then EU problems may be solved.
"There is still the matter of capex to be sorted out, so FWL may yet only end up with a very small percentage of the project by the time any fe is produced."
That's the part worries me... anything left for FWL (already lost 3 mtpa)??? If high-grade DSO, CAPEX should be extremely small. If FWL is trading at higher prices, FWL may consider capital raising or insti placement to raise their portion of CAPEX.
"...Taifeng willing to put in $4.8m at 4 times the current sp and spend another $20m"... total $29m for 3 mtpa (possibly DSO). If DSO, capex will be low.
Bit of assumption here, but... If spot price is $150/t & cost $50/t for DSO... $100/t margin X 3 mtpa = $300m/yr.... not a bad investment for $29m (+ low CAPEX).
P.S. Last Friday, my FMS got taken over offer... :) :), party all weekends. Made big profit, could use some profits to buy some FWL shares if I want to.
LCG Price at posting:
4.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held