EyeOverIt! I do see good value in FWL, don't get me wrong. The...

EyeOverIt! I do see good value in FWL, don't get me wrong. The main problems are MPI plant funding, Sin Tang selling cheap & SpringTree subscription.

This kept me on sideline, only bought some shares at this level. I emailed to director about SpringTree should subscribe at 'floor price' $0.125 (at that time sp was $0.10), but they do want their Notes paid.

Because EU problems & Eradu MPI plant lack of funding, otherwise I would consider buy out entire Sin Tang holding (around 4.5-5c) & very slowly selling down to de-risk, but risk is too high. Feb/2012 Greece needs to roll over massive debt.

Also questionable about profitability of Eradu MPI 1mtpa (96% iron), because starting Q3 2015 (possibly more delays). The CAPEX can blow out to $1.5B (I think $720m based on Jan 2010).

$1.5B (if 100% debt) X 10% (interest) = $150m interest only payments.

OPEX $275/t MPI... 2015 may be $350/t (carbon tax, fuel etc) & MPI may be selling $450/t

EBITDA = $100/t 1mtpa = $100m/year (not enough to cover interest-only payments).

I don't see how you can make money with MPI plant. TFA doesn't seem interested in MPI, just 3 mtpa to Port of Oakejee.