JLB, First off, I have now looked the DFS and agree they were...

  1. 11,543 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 273
    JLB,

    First off, I have now looked the DFS and agree they were projecting A$2.32 AISC. I will be pleasantly surprised if we see as low, however I will note that in Aud the copper credits about hold and fuel and labour costs should be down. We will see.

    Secondly as for WSA, I have been following for many years. Always report a low cash cost, never a AISC. Currently projecting C1 cash cost of A$2.50 but that does not include anything like all non capex expenditure. Then you need to add the budgeted sustaining capex for at least another 80 cents just for a start. I have not yet been through their FY but will be surprised if AISC isn't well above A$4.00

    Thirdly refinancing the debt on better terms. Well surely that speaks of IGO's cashflow and diversity, not any view the banks may have on the pon. My concern is not whether the pon can repay the debt, but whether it will also repay the billion plus SIR mc we are paying, plus a decent profit on top. Banks have it very easy in comparison.

    Finally, as for IGO being thumped, well it isn't the FY 15 performance, nor the FY 16 production or cost outlook. Nor is it the gold, which is largely unchanged in AUD.

    It's complex, but firstly the market saw a big transfer of value from IGO holders to Sir holders, then imho derated management and removed the halo. Then IGO ceased to be rated as a gold company, so lost that premium. Then nickel tanked and being seen as a now cashless nickel company is not the best space to be in today's market, esp if your management are seen to be less than astute.

    Without the SIR deal I have little doubt that IGO would be trading between 4 and 5 and fast approaching a cash chest of $1 per share to swoop with cash on some bargain, halo intact.

    Nova is going to need the discovery of a twin to make IGO management look even half astute again. Great operationally, but poor deal makers.

    EL
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add SIR (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.