Its a given that SIR will fall if the demerger does not go ahead, just like if another offer was received it would rise.
In my view, as it currently stands, the risk of that is about the same risk of another offer coming being made. With the 35% holder already playing his hand, it would require a massive vote against to tip him. If another offer was on the horizon, we would see a decoupling in the SP of SIR and IGO which are now very consistently aligned on daily fluctuations.
Simple formula is IGO SP x 0.66 + 0.52 + 0.08 = SIR SP. If you see that change dramatically its game on.
We are locked into the rise and fall of Nickel, which has been just as wild as the daily share price movements (close to 10% difference today on high and low - a traders dream). A lot of short positions were closed last week after the massive shakeout on 3 and 4th August.
The nickel price is around a double bottom it would appear just crudely looking at the chart. Short term I have no idea where it goes but medium term I am banking on the consensus view of up. Today saw all nickel miners dumped. So be it, its all relative.
IGO Price at posting:
$3.32 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
SIR Price at posting:
$2.72 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
