That is not actually correct PuzzledMonkey unless you assume...

That is not actually correct PuzzledMonkey unless you assume that new buyers want to dump the stock the day after it goes ex-dividend.

Firstly, the dividend was flagged back in June, so there has been plenty of time to buy in. The only thing that has changed is that we got a tax ruling on the capital return.

More importantly though, they can still satisfy the 45 day rule even if they buy the day it goes ex-dividend. They just need to hold it at risk for 45 days (plus the day of purchase and sale) following that.