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How low might this drift before stabilising?
NTA at 31/12/06 was 14cps. Second half forecast seems to indicate break even, so assuming this flows through to balance sheet it wil stay around 14cps. If there are delays or cost overruns (as has happened with regularity for years now) in large project delivery, and if the $A currency stays strong for another few months, the NTA could well slip to 12-13 by 30 June.
Why should it trade above NTA? Blue sky from earnings projections, but without track record of success, so probably will stay depressed until some positive evidence comes though.
Why should it trade below projected NTA? Might run out of cash, only had $10m at 31/12/06, but some big backers will lose alot so if needed wil prob get refinanced to tide them over to performance bond release in the next 18 months.
So this brings us back to the NTA level. So my prediction is trading in the 12-13 range until new evidence comes through that it is turning positive cash from business operations.