I'm not sure about the recent sp rise, but perhaps it just a small correction after the recent share price decimation. A counter offer by SBM would set the cat among the pigeons, but is probably wishful thinking. I assume if a counter offer were to eventuate it would have to be before the merger takes place?!
I'm not entirely convinced by the negative sentiment on here regarding the merger. I think it has its merits, i.e. 1. filling the gap between the mid tier producers and NCM; 2. the merged entity will attract more investors and could in itself be reason for a dual listing; 3. Jake Klein suggested that NCM has access to projects which are not generally available to midtier producers, i.e. NCM may filter down quality projects to the merged entity which do not fully meet NCM's criteria; 4. NCM's large equity holding suggests to me that the merged entity could become a NCM takeover target in the midterm.
I do acknowledge some of the negative aspects of the merger: 1. CQT is a drain on EPS in the short to medium term, but I remain optimistic that CQT has assets whose value isn't fully appreciated by the market.
2. The capital raising is obviously dilutionary, but I hope it takes place at a solid price (something around the $2 mark). Otherwise we will see the shareprice perpetually stagnate around the $1.50 mark. The capital raising should be postponed until the price is right!
And let's hope the gold price remains strong!
CAH Price at posting:
$1.45 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
