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I am not sure a revenue multiple of 10 will be possible after...

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retiredyoung

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13/02/19

15:18

Post #: 37425037
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Originally posted by Holdtight: ↑

Great questions.
To estimate this we need a coy in a similar sector ie IoT, or technology hardware or technology solutions. Have similar growth path of venues.( LiFX is 70-100%pa) Have similar size revenues. Also the coy needs to a similar distance to NPAT/ breakeven  and has to be ASX listed.
So a very difficult proposition to find all the elements. So we will aim to go as close as possible. At the early stage of a companies life when growth is >30% and there is no earnings there is no point looking at p/e. So we have to look at revenue multiples. Lets try and give an even balance of revenue multiples:
The ASX average revenue multiple is approx 6.5 across all sectors. With banks trading around 3.5-4 times. the big mines around 3. Tech stocks like APX trades at 6 times revenues and almost 46 times earnings. At the other extreme there are companies that are in decline and they trade at equal to or less that their revenue as they are losing a great deal of money and are look like going under.

At the top end of companies that are in a high growth faze, you can look at Afterpay 37 X 2018 revenue, TTT at 1000 X, and many many other seemingly silly valuations.
Lifx: BUD market cap ?????? Rev 2018 45m, Estimate revenue 2019 $80-90m.
Nearmap: NEA. market cap $1044m, Rev 2018,  53.6 Estimate 2019 rev 74.1m EPS -10m.  So trading at 14 X 2019 earnings or 20 X 2018 earnings.
Bid energy: BID Market cap $185m. Rev 2018, $4.1m Estimate 2019 $6m 2018 EPS -$4m. So trading at 30 X 2019 or 45 X 2018 revenue.
Megaport : MP1 market cap $469m rev 2018, 19.8m, 2019 rev est 35.1m EPS of around $30m. Trading at 13 X 2019 rev or 23 X 2018.
Sentas : SEN Market cap $78.9m Rev 2018 19m BUT 2019 estimate only 21m EPS about b/e Trading at 4.2 X revenues. Issue here is the growth rate.
THEN the silliest of all Splitit...$220m market cap on $1.7m in rev.117 X revenues.

Taking all this on board,my conservative valuation LIFX at 2018 rev X 4 is $180m ( 10c ) and of 2019 forecast is $340m. With 1.7B shares issued in bud, that work out to be approx 20c. Giving zero value to bud.
Obviously this requires sales targets to be met and if that is happening after a few quarters I believe the market will increase to revenue multiple closer to 10 X given the incredible growth rate. Then add in what every bud valuation you feel appropriate.

Interested to see other thoughts.

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I am not sure a revenue multiple of 10 will be possible after the Lifx acquisition, maybe stick with 3 or 4 until some broker reports come out. Hopefully Trump does not increase tariffs to 25%, in my opinion if he does that will not be good for anyone.

I am not sure if there are any listed lighting companies of a similar size to Lifx but larger ones are on much lower multiples. For example, Philips Lighting (now Signify Lighting) had revenue of approximately €7B and has a MC of €2.9B. A revenue multiple of 0.4.

BUD Price at posting: 8.1¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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