I agree T23. I think most of the insurer's will grapple with cat...

I agree T23. I think most of the insurer's will grapple with cat cover this year (as you say, providers should be happy - perhaps someone like SwissRe would be rubbing their hands together!).

I have been watching the yield curve closely, keeping in mind the duration profile of CIX (as disclosed in their AASB7 disclosures). Got a feeling they will take a reasonable hit in H1/09 based on this alone - my rough calcs, taking into consideration the potential mark-to-market losses from duration slip, puts their yield on investments at around 2.5% for H1/09 - which is around a 3.5% drop from 2008. Translated into half-yearly P&L (assuming fully hedged on technical asset duration) CIX will drop from around $6.5 million half yearly profits to around $4.0 million. Add to this the cost of additional cat cover and I think we are looking at an H1/2009 profit figure of around $3.7 million, with a 2009 forecast of around $8.2 million. I got a feeling (just a guy one) that the market won't like this...

I reckon I will reenter around 30/32 cents. I haven't seen a renewal notice for the buyback so am assuming that CIX have let it lapse. That said, I reckon if the stock hits 30 cents they will be back in - hence the decision for me to buy at/around that zone.

Don't expect the FF dividend to change this year though - even though gross profits will be down year-on-year; hence my long term desire to hold.

Take care
Kit