hey thats an interesting comment from Eureka, re CC buying MOS...

hey thats an interesting comment from Eureka, re CC buying MOS to arbitrage AGL shares.
if the Scheme proposal goes ahead after 4 Aug, then CC can do all sorts of things with their prospective AGL holding.ie write options, sell forward, etc etc.
I had not thought of that as a scenario, that CC might buy MOS, not because of attraction to MOS, but attraction to AGL.

they keep referring to the AGL bid being "final".
i have pointed out that this is rubbish.

just look at AMP bid for AXA, and there have been others, where the bidder declares bid final, then comes back with a higher offer.

notably, I don't think aGL has actually proffered a "bid" - its only a "proposal". thats what AMP said.

you cannot believe that, if another suitor lobs a bid higher than AGLs, that AGL won't come back with a higher bid?!

without a doubt CC are expecting a higher bid, and if one does not eventuate, then their downside is very limited.
the only way they would lose, is if the Scheme was voted down, and AGL went away.
but with AGL holding proxies for 12.8% plus CC with 8%, the probability that the Scheme would be approved is high.

Of course, it is possible for someone to make an offer after 4 Aug, its just that MOS cannot "shop" the company.

cheers