Chance of success is 13% according to an independent report from...

Chance of success is 13% according to an independent report from RPS Consultants commissioned by MOG.
Therefore chance of failure is 87%

MEO has chance of success at 32%, however I prefer to run with an independent report as inhouse reports are too biased imo.

PBR are committed to USD80mil expenditure, after that, further wells/expenditure are contingent/optional on A#1 results.
USD80 mil sounds a lot but PBR would spend that on one deepwater well.
Therefore I wouldn't consider PBR's USD80mil committment as evidence that A#1 success is a sure thing.