KZL 0.00% 12.0¢ kagara ltd

The MD is a direct contact of mine but I wouldn't contact him...

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    The MD is a direct contact of mine but I wouldn't contact him unless I needed to and he is approachable but now is not the time. It would be a bit like tapping the shoulder of the captain of the titanic mid U-turn to avoid hitting the iceberg.

    Perhaps after the quarterly comes out and if you like you could create a post titled 'Comments for the MD' and I will forward them to Jeff plus add a few comments/suggestions of my own. It's a good idea and certainly no MD is above contact with smaller investors. I have some minor issues I could add such as depreciation schedule clarity, website communication, key dates etc.

    As for this quarter, you can estimate how they are going fairly accurately for yourself but remember a ship doesn't turn round in one quarter. What we should be looking for is confirmation that KZL is turning round all the while keeping in mind that we may not see the full benefit of announced cost savings until July 11 - Q3&Q4 report.

    However, what we should be able to measure on April 11 is cash at bank, C1 costs, AUD impacts, major expenditure and current debt as well as the status of the ANZ refinance facility.

    I expect positive news on all fronts and I believe the AUD is on track to parity despite the stubborness of the RBA to keep rates high.

    See this brilliant article by the ABC: Trend growth truths

    The data from the activity report should also confirm that KZL has gone cash flow positive, but it may not be as evident due to delayed cost savings in Q1 that won't really impact the business until Q2. Still they should make it.

    Given current commodity prices & a still relatively high AUD, I think we will see a marked improvement but not a complete turnaround. And all at a time of peak metal demand, so the downside risk is relatively mute and I think we are starting to see sellers backing off and volume stabilizing.

    There has certainly never been a recession or correction in US markets during a presidential election year - ever. Even if things in Australia do continue to slow at a local level, companies exposed to foreign markets such as exporters, most miners (avoid coal), oilers, manufacturers etc will do well. Even the banks do well because they always find ways to maintain profit margins.

    If you look in Table 2 here - you can see evidence of this...
    Presidential Elections and Stock Market Cycles











 
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