SOLGOLD- Part 2 (Part 1, 9 Nov 2017 is quoted in the previous post also of today)
<>Ref: www.mining.com/investors-pile-perus-2-billion-michiquillay-copper-project/
Mining.com, 16 Oct 2017
"Investors pile into Peru^s $2 billion Michiquillay copper project. A contract for the project, said the agency will be awarded on Dec 20." (2017)
"..Mineral resources at Michiquillay are estimated at 1.1 Billion Tonnes of Copper with an average grade of 0.629% and a Cut-Off of o.4% copper. The asset also holds gold, silver & moly."
"The project is the first sizeable mineral deposit to be offered in a public auction in Peru in more than 10 years. Whilst the govt did not reveal any bidders name...."
<>Ref: "Peru says over 20 companies interested in $2 billion copper project." Reuters, UK. [Please put this title into the search engine to read]
Comment:
Since the auction has not yet taken place on 20 Dec 2017, one will not know until then what the final price for the sale of Michiquillay.
Southern Ecuador is closest to Peru where La Muecha lies belonging to Solgold (100% discovery). Cascabel is more to the North of Ecuador.
As already quoted in my earlier post of today with links, Cascabel is "Aggregated estimate 10 Billion Tonnes @0.6% Cu Copper and 0.6% g/t Au & 1%% Cu Equivalent."
From early Regulatory News Service (RNS) announcements from Solgold, it appears that that Alpala target at Cascabel could contain 1 billion tonnes of copper. However, there are no recent figures from latest RNS. In the Paradigm said note, they have quoted a figure for Alpala (please check).
One will not know the final figure until the Maiden Resource Statement is released expected for end of 2017.
However, one can see that Paradigm Capital (Toronto Leading Investment Bankers etc) have attributed US$690 million to Solgold @ 50 pence target price for 12 months which is around the Enterprise Value (Please check). £1=US$1.3 today so US$690million is around £530 million.
Currently, Solgold share price in London is 27.75 pence, market cap £420.7 million.
So, if the thesis is for 1 billion tonnes of copper at around the grades quoted, then M & A is Peru as a bench mark appears to show that the figures quoted appear to be reasonable eg US$690 million per Paradigm Capital vs $2 billion for Machiquillay.
I have no further data on Machiquillay in Peru as it is govt owned.
It is a no wonder why it will take 2018 to drill further to Alpala. IF the model of 10 Billion Tonnes is correct (+ -), then it appears that it is 10 TIMES of Michiquillay?
Simple maths - if Michiquillay goes for $2 billion {no premium or higher bid on 20 Dec 2017) then 10 Michiquillay^s appears to be $20billion =£15 billion (if exchange rate is £1=US$1.3).
It is common knowledge that investors look at Mergers & Acquisition (M & A) prices in the current market although one is aware that price is at the fall of the hammer price or what the buyer will pay.
It is always good to put some perspective to the picture as to where Cascabel is heading IF it all goes to plan and as Paradigm Capital states, there are "events" and "de-risking catalysts" to come. Please note ALL the other risks terms at the end of every note/s or presentation/s.
It is also commonly known that for any mining project, one calculates the NPV with or without discount etc minus the dilution (placings) to come to a Diluted share price target.
Please note that there is NO suggestion that Cascabel is 10 times Machiquillay*s as one has to wait for the official figures per the Maiden Resource Statement for Alpala and any further updated data on Cascabel as a whole.
Any individual investor will have to do their own research, check and calculated what they think the final diluted share price will be or wait until a licensed broker in London or Toronto (Solgold is listed in London & Toronto on the LSE/TSX) issues a diluted share price at each s t a g e of further drill targets other than Alpala.
The above is merely to get some idea of what 10 billion tonnes of copper 1% Cu Equi per Solgold Sep 2017 Presentation looks like - perspective of size? In terms of potential value, it will depend on the price of copper etc.
Thur, 9 Nov 2017- Sol1, HotCopper poster
DYOR, IMHO. Please check as there can be errors.
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