SOL under $15 ?, page-6

I am thinking that you may get below $15.00 Whilst the share was largely immune to falls in TPM - I dont think it is anymore. The market does seem to by osmosis almost reflect the total basket. In fact it interesting but the discounts are still there but the margin for error is much lower. Have not updated my model with the latest financials but have taken into account share prices and whilst TPM has travelled badly the NHC movement although small is amplified because they own double the number of shares. So every 10c up on NHC can cover 20c down on TPM.

However my thesis for more cheap shares is this:

1. Its unlikely that NHC will get the Ackland 3 nod anytime soon and as such that uncertainty still plays into a weak share price.
2.There is no doubt from my view that TPM is going to hit some issues and that the cash spend will hurt results in the short term - i.e over the next 18 months to 24 months.
3. Then there must be a building development slow down within the same period so BKW must get to a lower performance in the same time frame.

Add those and its a perfect storm - URB and PCG are just not big enough to offset these.

So I am thinking that around $13.50 to $14.50 for SOL and around $11.50 to $12.75 for BKW

No this is not a down ramp and I don't short.

Really what I am looking at is a scenario where instead of topping up now I am waiting until I can see the actual results unfold for these very cyclical businesses and then the NBN and mobile unfold for TPM.

Those that I have I will continue to hold and as the events unfold I will keep adjusting my model - I am looking for when it hits the 20% underlying discount to share price value. Currently just under 15% for SOL and in a swing around only around 13% for BKW reflecting the drop in SOL share price and a stronger BKW over the past month.