G'day Mac, good to see you back on the forum. My views aren't based on anything I've heard, but I do firmly believe this is the direction we are headed.
Recently I've sat back and really tried to look at this thing with fresh eyes and I feel that there are several things which can't be ignored or denied:
1. Wroxby recently increased their holdings, he is creeping up his overall %.
2. The buyback only further increases the overall % he holds. He has already begun his move IMHO - how much say did Ryan Stokes have on the buy-back decision in the board room?
3. The recent IV deal with FMG could potentially be worth over $1 Billion to IOH (dependant on strong future iron ore prices). If Stokes is bullish on iron ore, why would he allow little fish like us a slice of that pie when he could simple gobble the whole thing up for himself right now?
4. Stokes has his son on the board & he knows what is cooking at Maitland. If IOH were cooking up a big JV with FMG (another great money spinner) again I ask why would he allow the minnows a nibble?
Overall, I simply believe that the IOH story has now become so compelling that Stokes would be foolish not to want it all for himself.
It now becomes a question of timing and a palatable price for the top 20 that he needs to agree for a sale.
The question in my mind is at what price? I think the recent options packages awarded to Vorster & Randall plus our historical high around $2.70 would suggest he probably needs to put at least $2.50-$2.80 on the table to pick up the company.
IOH Price at posting:
$1.68 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held