I believe it is a poor view to argue the conversion of franchisees as a negatively impacting factor on GFY's sales due to the replacement of "motivated" managers. The prospectus clearly states the conversion of 'under performing' franchisees. I do however understand the opinion of the saturated nature of Godfrey's stores nationwide, and the fact that retail companies plain and simply require growth to increase value. However, fundamentally Godfreys is a very sound company, with low (and lowering) overall debt, increasing sales and profits and very capable management. My main concern with this franchisee business is a large portion of sales volume are wholesale to franchise, which could be a key reason why forecasted profit targets have been reduced (resulting in that slump in share price in October).
I must admit i am at a cross-roads with my opinions of the intrinsic value of the company, as i believe financially and on paper they are highly underrated (which should be all that matters, coupled with reasonable expectations and assumptions on growth potential), yet the continuous falling share price, the only mercy being shown by the close of markets over the end of week period, suggests there is something going on that i am struggling to fully put my finger on....
*Personal Prescription - keep an eye on GFY share price until it bottoms out (see it sit around $1.60 - $1.55 then when any negatively impacting news arrives and the share price does not move any further downward, that will be its bottom) , then we will probably watch the inevitable clime above its IPO price by a dollar or so.... however due to retail market conditions and Godfrey's forecasted expansion plans, this could take as long as end of financial year 2016.... these are all educated assumptions, of course.
GFY Price at posting:
$1.67 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held