The expanded mine case BFS is due out Q1 this year. I guess JAL had some revised estimates they wanted incorporated in the draft BFS and had Norwest ammend to their liking,
They have estimated $20 operating margin per tonne.
Initial estimates of 500000 tonne operation per annum. This gives operating profile of 500k x $20 = $10m. Lets say repayment of interest of $1m gives $9m x 0.70 = $6.3m NPAT.
Given the above and a market PE of 13, then we get 6.3x13 = $81.9m / 62m = $1.32 per share.
Now lets revise our estimate when JAL increases to 1m tonne a year production. That gets us to 2 x 1.32 = $2.64 a share.
Obviously there is further upside given any increase in the price of thermal coal. All the recent news suggests that we'll see some more upside to this soon.
DYOR. It's late a night and calcs are very rough.
JAL Price at posting:
38.4¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
