I think the biggest threat to the distribution is Stage 3. In...

I think the biggest threat to the distribution is Stage 3. In all their material they affirm 12c with an out clause for when stage 3 financing is finalised. IT is quite possible that a debt provider could require a reduction or halt of distributions to pay down debt sooner.

The flip side is that Stage 3 is also THE event for capital growth in this stock. Have a look at the revenue charts with and without Stage 3. It doubles revenue with minimal increase in cost base.

They will be feeling the pressure to maintain the distribution but with such little free cash at their disposal I can't see how they can do it.